Logan Ramsey
News Editor
Contrary to how the headline looks, this column is in no way meant to be alarmist. Perhaps the worst outcome we could see to the spread of Covid-19 is mass hysteria.
However, there is reason to be worried. People seem to be in two different camps, with some hoarding food and preparing for the worst and others not concerned at all. We all should be taking precautions, but there’s a middle ground between the two extremes.
I also want to clarify that I’m not an expert in the spread of disease. I’ve just done research and I have a healthy self-preservation instinct.
The virus hasn’t reached Idaho yet, but there’s a good chance it will considering experts can’t know for certain how many people are walking around contagious, but not displaying symptoms. They can only confirm cases, and they’re finding more and more of those.
As of March 8, there are cases in more than 30 states and 21 people have died, while on Feb. 29, there was only one death. Six states have declared a state of emergency while our president refuses to admit he’s even worried. Those states are New York, California, Florida, Maryland, Washington and most recently, Oregon. For those not familiar with geography, those last two states are pretty close to Idaho.
Around the world, it’s reached 78 countries with over 100,000 confirmed cases. Italy has now quarantined at least a quarter of its population in lockdown.
The part of this situation that scares me the most is that efforts to contain the disease in the short-term will fail and we don’t know how many people are out there spreading it right now.
The justification I’ve heard for why some people aren’t concerned is that the fatality rate of 2% isn’t “that bad.” The unfortunate news is that our current models are inaccurate because of the same reason we haven’t stopped the spread of the infection. We don’t know how many people have it.
This could lower the mortality rate, because we could find more people who survive the illness. However, that’s not the point; right now our current models are inaccurate and we simply don’t know how deadly Covid-19 is.
There’s been a lot of focus on how a possible Coronavirus-caused recession would affect the 2020 election, but that discussion ignores the crisis at hand. Too many columnists have gleefully written about how Covid-19 will end Trump’s presidency while the sick die from a disease other people unknowingly spread.
On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization stated that the fatality rate of Covid-19 was 3.4%. This percentage could grow or shrink, but let’s say the infection only reached 150,000 people and then stopped. If the rate is 2%, 3,000 people would die. If we applied 3.4%, the death toll is 5,100. When talking about fatality, the difference between a percentage point is massive.
The virus primarily kills the elderly and people with compromised immune systems, so if you’re healthy, you’re not likely to die. However, the people around you are at risk and you could spread the disease to them without even knowing you’re infected.
People also seem to be taking comfort in the notion that the danger will dissipate with warmer weather in the summer, like President Trump for instance. There is a historical precedent for this with the 2003 spread of SARS, but I think it’s a mistake to rely on a deus ex machina to solve our problem. With issues like the spread of disease, it’s always better to be safe than sorry. It’s too late for the U.S. to be safe, so we’ll be sorry.
I’m not writing this column because I want to incite panic. I want to incite the opposite, healthy fear. We all have to take it upon ourselves to take reasonable steps to prevent further spread of the virus, and those are pretty simple.
If you’re sick, stay at home. Touch your face as little as possible. Wash your hands much more than you regularly would and clean surfaces that are regularly used. Buy a reasonable stock of food but do not hoard food, water and facemasks. Face protection won’t stop you from getting the virus and you’re taking that equipment from the healthcare workers that need it.
I have no idea how far this disease will go, but we’d do ourselves a favor if we all prepare for the disease to reach Idaho. For the good of yourself and everyone around you, follow steps to prepare for whatever outcome we reach.
